Let’s Discuss How Future Warfare Will Look
The recent attack in Lebanon has left the world flabbergasted. The Pager network yet considered as an outdated but secure means of communication, by Iran backed militant group, Hezbollah has collapsed in Lebanon. Hundreds of Pagers carried by Lebanon Members, blew up nearly simultaneously on 17th day of September around 03:30 PM, resulting in death of Twelve persons and more than Three Thousand wounded. The next day the blast in handheld radios or walkie talkies resulted in increase in death toll and injury to Four Hundred Fifty. According to a Reuters report, citing a Lebanese security source, Mossad had planted explosives in pagers imported by Hezbollah several months prior to Tuesday’s explosions and other theory says, the devices were hacked, and they blew because of heat.
Unlike other non-state actors, Hezbollah unit uses Pagers and walkie talkies, as internal communication network, considering telephonic communication unsafe for organization and their operations. In a speech in February 2024, Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah urged, Hezbollah Members to ditch their mobile phones. General Hassan said: “Shut it off, bury it, put it in an iron chest and lock it up, … … Do it for the sake of security and to protect the blood and dignity of people… … The Cell Phone is collaborator and killer.”
The pagers that explode were new and had been purchased by Hezbollah in recent month. Only days before, Hezbollah received the new shipment of pagers. This indicates that the attack on pagers were beyond sight of Hezbollah and came with surprise.
This attack has sparked a new debate on cyber warfare. Lebanon’s Information Minister Ziyad Makari told Al-Jazeera TV that, “What happened is a new kind of warfare, and investigations are ongoing by the state and Hezbollah”. This also indicates the existence of vulnerabilities which can be exploited. The one thing about which experts have consensus is the dimension of warfare is changing radically. Cyber warfare is taking the place of conventional warfare.
Modern warfare has constantly changed, driven by technological innovation. Key innovations, such as cyberspace and Artificial Intelligence (AI), are now creating new ways to engage in conflict. These evolving battlefields have been reshaped by key technologies like Cyber, Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality (VR/AR), Artificial Intelligence, and 3D printing. These advancements have turned the battlefield into a complex, interconnected system where the physical and virtual worlds merge. As a result, combatants can now engage in warfare without relying on traditional physical force, maintaining anonymity, ambiguity, speed, no warning, and lack of posturing. a stark contrast to the battles of earlier centuries.
The literature on generations of warfare classifies warfare in five generations. Fifth-generation warfare, which is also the recent most, focuses on manipulating an opponent’s population by altering their worldview and perception of threats, often without the target even realizing it. In conventional warfare surprise is a critical element, and cyber-attacks achieve this every time. The national security establishment and military planners are perplexed about how to combat faceless and formless enemies, knowing no boundaries.
In the new warfare the attack can be on hardware of command, control, computer, intelligence, communications, information, reconnaissance and surveillance physically or remotely by distorting on software which operate these systems. Here the threat is invisible, but the effects are very visible.
As far as India is concerned, China and Pakistan pose significant threat to our cyber security. As per Lt. General Vinod Bhatia, PVSM, AVSM, SM, “People’s Liberation Army’s, strategic cyber command is situated in the PLA’s general staff department. It has 1,30,000 personnels and pool of at least 25 million people, who have the basic education to participate in Cyber Warfare, hacking, espionage, spying and sabotage.” In May 2008 Chinese hackers allegedly broke out into our Ministry of External Affairs. Even during Doklam Standoff Chinese cyber activities were directed towards India, to make a psychological warfare. In the month of March 2021, a Singapore-based company, CyFirma, came with. a report that a Chinese state-backed hackers’ group had targeted the information technology systems of two Indian vaccine makers—Bharat Biotech and the Serum Institute of India (SII). The threat is real. In April 2016 Xi, pledged greater state commitment, both financially and policy wise to raise Chinas Cybersecurity capabilities more robust. The strength of cyber warfare is less in Pakistan, but Pakistan as a threat can’t be ignored. Pakistan has been defacing Indian Websites through group of hackers like, Pakistan Hackers Club, G – Force, etc.
The Joint doctrine of Indian Armed Forced was released in 2017, that recognizes the five domains of modern warfare, i.e. Land, Sea, Air, Space and Cyber Space. The three parts of conventional warfare strategy and two being unconventional. The India’s approach can’t be piecemeal in putting cyber strategy as part of national security strategy. Cyber can’t be viewed as enabler anymore, rather it is part of non-contact warfare. In recent past India has done a great job in creating physical infrastructure, today what is under treat is virtual infrastructure. The infrastructure is virtual, but the effect of attack is existent. Observing the unprecedented techniques of warfare in Lebanon, by Israel, against Hezbollah India needs to develop a secure, robust and resilient cyber space for its citizens, business, government and institutions. The India should strengthen its cyber capabilities offensive and defensive both. The government agencies should be capable of defending against known cyber threats, respond to new treats and immediately and quickly respond and recover from cyber incidents, irrespective of whether they are result of natural disaster, accident or malicious attack.
Pranjal Chaturvedi,
Pranjal is a PhD scholar at Bennett University (Times of India Group)
